Saturday, October 30, 2010

Groupon coming to China


Lets look at some facts about this business …

Twitter took 3 years to hit a USD$ 1 billion valuation, Facebook with 2 years and Groupon broke the record with a year and a half. Groupon was the craziest Internet companies in history and its simply because it has a damn good business model where revenues come in from almost day one.

There are many Groupon copycats in China. Market resource said there were already over 100 but I think the number exceeds 500 personally. The market is already overheated and going much crazy than anyone had expected, I have staff that do “grouponing” ( tuan gou ) daily looking for good offers and asking everyone at the office to buy along. Even my expat partner is doing the “tuan gou” looking for top spa to take his girlfriend every month. Some have raised a large amount of money from VC and is preparing to forge ahead into every big city in China. The Chinese market is big enough for “tuan gou” style of business given the many cities each company would need to cover so there are many opportunities available especially when the business model is basically about:

1.) Cheap price
2.) Best and variety of offers
3.) Ability to ensure that vendors honors the package

However we cant say that “Grouping” is a copycat business model from the West like YouTube and Twitter as “Group Purchase” ( Tuan Gou ) is hugely popular in China especially in Home improvement/Home decoration market where thousands of people got connected online and buy the same products together in street shops in order to get a good bulk-discount. TG.com.cn is reaping as much as RMB 50 million after-tax income and is already getting ready for IPO next year.

Groupon style represents a new method of the old method in the “tuan gou” system.
There is a news on Donews - http://www.donews.com/original/201010/236202.shtm ( Chinese ) which state that Groupon’s business development director have held several meetings with five popular Chinese Groupon clones, Meituan, FTuan, Lashou, Aibang and QQTuan. The news says Groupon met these clones one by one and the detail of each meeting can not be disclosed due to an NDA signed by each party.

An insider said Groupon’s visit to China this time had two purposes, firstly to understand the local market and local regulation; secondly to look for the right local partner. Groupon will likely follow the same strategy when it entered Japanese market - acquire one local clone.

Which one will be the super lucky clone to be acquired by Groupon?

However if Groupon decides to kick start the business themselves in China and send in a group of Western professionals that will almost equals to digging their grave here in China.

*NOTE : Love this business and was infact looking at it since Groupon started but did not proceed as I still believe in being professional and an expert in a field I'm more familiar with. However I had a friend whom just keeps starting what-so-ever that is hot in the US in China by just mimicking exactly the business concepts. He did pretty well too so far !

eCommerce is huge in China





DangDang the largest Chinese online book retailer, will be going public in Nasdaq. As one of the first major Chinese ecommerce sites going public, it will create a lot of noise especially today when China “ecom” business is booming.

It’s rumor that Dangdang will have a valuation of about US$ 1 billion base on about only US$ 5 million in profit last year, it provides a PE of 200 times. Growth of the company’s core business ( selling books ) is slowing down. DangDang have a new business line - which sells everything from electronics to linens, slipper, home decor, milk powder, etc … This new line grows fast with over 230% last year tho’ currently only account for a small portion of the company revenues.
The brand name DangDang is famed for books in China as with its main rival JOYO ( Amazon’s China Subsidiary ).

Apart from Taobao which we could say resembles a huge shopping mall online whom have everything from A-Z from thousands of sellers the ecommerce industry is moving “vertical” specifically targeting a specific segment or niche’. Such companies in China - for electronics, 360Buy, for milk powder and other baby products Red Baby tho’ a host of many others baby sites are mushrooming including a friend of mine whom had just paid a hefty 1 million for the domain Baby.com.cn to launch his ecommerce baby line after acquiring more than 100+ baby stores across China. And for garments products there is Vancl whom I had to mention since their advertisements had been popping up on my screen daily every time I start my MSN. And there is Moonbasa and Rutisher too for clothing whom is VC backed today and is doing extremely good. Not forgetting Gilt.com Chinese version – VipShop and VipShangpin is fast shaping its business in China.

360Buy IPO is also in the pipeline and the company business is growing leaps and bounce so we be expecting another huge ecommerce IPO soon around the corner.

According to industry insider online book stores has gross profit margin of about 5-10%. Electronics : 3-5%. Garments : 20-50%. But eventually as predicted every ecommerce site that goes IPO will be opening up to sell almost everything to tap onto more categories to expand their market share and to increase revenues.

*NOTE : Had always wanted to be in this business but never had the chance or opportunity. Who knows maybe one day I will.

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Facebook controls who you connect with ...

Not many of us may know ...

You might think that you have shared all your photos of your trip to Hangzhou, posted your "What's on your mind ?" and shared your videos with all your friends on Facebook but you are wrong as not all your friends gets to see your news feeds and updates. Facebook decides who gets to see it and who don't !!!

Facebook also keeps the details of its logics discreet and a secret.

Facebook practically decides what;s important for you in their very own framework. So in order to get more connected it is not about just posting news feeds and updates but take sometime off to visit the Facebook pages of friends you want your news feed to appear. This is one way to get into the system but may not be the best way to break the logic.

This is bad news to "Marketers" whom actually thinks they now have thousands of fans and their news feed is reaching and connecting with each individual one of them.

So next time you think you are in control ... think again !

Thursday, September 23, 2010

2011 Crystal Ball

Lets look into the Crystal Ball and check what's installed for the future in the online games market ... Madam X predictions and advice are as follows ...



THE SOCIAL GAMES MARKET



Consolidation, M&A will continues as the market can only sustain a few heavy weight players. However an occasional unpredicted success will come from the unexpected new players. Majority of new players will fail. More venture money will be pouring on to this area as there maybe an eventual IPO sooner than Facebook. Branded social games will be the next big hit thing in 2011, lookout for something from EA and Disney.

Social Games will become more sophisticated replacing repetitive game play and mechanics. Eventually "Viral Game Play" will need to blend in with true "PLAY VALUE".


Sorry Alex of Hi5 hard core MMO will not be replacing social games this coming year. We wont see players of Farm Ville playing ULTIMA ONLINE too on Facebook so sorry Richard Garriot !

BUT we will see some smart companies and studios blending the following together to create the next generation of social games on Facebook :

1.) Play Values
*ignore viral but put in more play values.

2.) Casual Game Play
*not hard core as casual play still rules.

3.) MMO elements
*it will be real multiplayer.

4.) Social Graphs
*never leave this one out.

WEB BASED MMO MARKET

2011 and 2012 will be the year of 3D WEB MMO online games.
UNITY engine and others will be a big hit next year, revenues on web base MMO will grow while client base MMO may slowdown. However for kids MMO and virtual worlds the Flash base world will still be the No.1 choice as a plugin is still considered an entry barrier for kids world where they are told not to install anything from the web.

VIRTUAL WORLDS MARKET

Forget about the teens and adults market as these are for MMO.
The kids market is the only market for virtual worlds but competition will be heavy certainly. China will be a new market arena for kids world and will boom sometime next year.

TBC ...



Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Taobao versus Ebay in China

This is a classic case study of how to fail in China ...

*Courtesy of Forbes.com ( I'm too lazy to write the story as Forbes Helen Wang wrote such a good story here ).



In 2004, eBay had just entered China and was planning to dominate the China market. Alibaba was a local Chinese company that helped small- and medium-sized enterprises conducting business online. Most people in the West had barely heard about it.


When eBay entered the China market, Jack Ma, founder and CEO of Alibaba, was alarmed that “someday, eBay would come in our direction.” He knew too well that there was no clear distinction between small businesses and individual consumers in China. As a defensive strategy, Ma decided to launch a competing consumer-to-consumer (C2C) auction site, not to make money, but to fend off eBay from taking away Alibaba’s customers.


A new Web site named Taobao—meaning “digging for treasure”—was launched free of charge for individuals buying and selling virtually any consumer goods, from cosmetics to electronic parts.
In 2004, I visited Alibaba at its headquarters in Hangzhou. It is located on a campus of three ten-story buildings in the northeastern part of Hangzhou, about a ten-minute taxi drive from West Lake. In the lobby, a flat panel TV was streaming video clips of Jack Ma speaking at various public events where his admirers, most of them in their twenties, were cheering him like a rock star. While visiting Alibaba’s headquarters in Hangzhou, I felt the same “insanely great” energy of entrepreneurship as I felt in Silicon Valley. When I asked a senior manager at Alibaba whether the company was worried that it would be bought by eBay, I was blown away by the answer: “We will buy eBay!”


EBay, on the other hand, began its most aggressive campaigns to dominate the market and thwart competitors. Soon after Taobao was launched, eBay signed exclusive advertising rights with major portals Sina, Sohu, and Netease with the intention of blocking advertisements from Taobao. In addition, eBay injected another $100 million to build its China operation, now renamed “eBay EachNet,” and was spreading its ads on buses, subway platforms, and everywhere else.


Ma fought back cleverly. Knowing that most small business people would rather watch TV than log on to the Internet, Ma secured advertisements for Taobao on major TV channels. In 2004, one could easily feel the heat of fierce competition between eBay EachNet and Taobao. When I was taking a taxi in Shanghai, I noticed the ads of eBay EachNet on the back of the driver’s seat; when I checked into my hotel, I heard the ads for Taobao popping up on TV almost every half hour. Since its name means “digging for treasure” in Chinese, it attracted a lot of attention by a smart play on words. While most people in the West had never heard of Taobao, its name was heard loud and strong in China.


Nevertheless, most industry observers were suspicious about Taobao’s future, particularly its sustainability. Unlike eBay EachNet, which charged its sellers for listing and transaction fees, Taobao was free to use. Neither Ma nor any members from the management team gave a definite timeline as to how long this “free period” was going to last. “Free is not a business model,” the doubters said. Some thought Ma was crazy and nicknamed him “Crazy Ma.”
No doubt Crazy Ma was changing the game. Taobao got a quick start with its free listings and continued to gain momentum as more and more users switched from eBay EachNet to Taobao.



According to a Morgan Stanley report, Taobao was more customer focused and user friendly than eBay EachNet. With most users not sophisticated about auctions, the majority of Taobao’s listings were for sales. Only 10 percent of its listings were for auctions, while eBay EachNet had about 40 percent of its listings for auctions. Taobao had also better terms for its customers: it offered longer listing periods (fourteen days) and let customers extend for one more period automatically. EBay EachNet did not have this flexibility.


Taobao’s listings appeared to be more customer-centric while eBay EachNet’s listings more product-centric. For example, Taobao’s listings were organized into several categories, such as “Men,” “Women,” and so on, while eBay EachNet stuck to its global platform, grouping users into “Buyers” and “Sellers.” At that time, China had about three hundred million cell phone users versus ninety million Internet users. Taobao offered instant messaging and voice mail to mobile phones for buyers and sellers because Chinese users were cell-phone savvy rather than computer savvy.


It was clear that Taobao had an upper hand against its global counterpart because it really understood Chinese customers. As a result, Taobao had higher customer satisfaction than eBay EachNet. According to iResearch, a Beijing-based research firm, the user satisfaction level was 77 percent for Taobao versus 62 percent for eBay EachNet. The experience of competing with eBay gave Ma tremendous confidence. He was determined to win: “eBay may be a shark in the ocean, but I am a crocodile in the Yangtze River. If we fight in the ocean, we lose—but if we fight in the river, we win.”


By March 2006, Taobao had outpaced eBay EachNet and became the leader in China’s consumer-to-consumer (C2C) market, with 67 percent market share in terms of users, while eBay EachNet had only 29 percent market share. “The competition is over,” Ma exclaimed. “It’s time to claim the battlefield.”


On December 20, 2006, Meg Whitman, eBay’s then CEO, flew to Shanghai to take part in a press conference to announce a new joint venture with Beijing-based Internet portal Tom Online, which provides wireless value-added multimedia services. It was, in reality, a formal announcement of eBay’s withdrawal from the online auction market in China. EBay shut down its China site, eBay EachNet, and took a back seat to a company with only $173 million in revenue and no experience in the online auction business.


Jack Ma represents a new generation of savvy Chinese competitors who should not be underestimated. They study their markets and bring to bear their local knowledge. They learn from their competition and from their own mistakes as they move up the competitive landscape.
The case of Alibaba provides an invaluable lesson for multinationals to succeed in China market:
First, eBay failed to recognize that the Chinese market and the business environment are very different from that of the West. EBay sent a German manager to lead the China operation and brought in a chief technology officer from the United States. Neither one spoke Chinese or understood the local market. It was eBay’s biggest mistake. Second, because the top management team didn’t understand the local market, they spent a lot of money doing the wrong things, such as advertising on the Internet in a country where small businesses didn’t use the Internet. The fact that eBay had a strong brand in the United States didn’t mean it would be a strong brand in China. Third, rather than adapt products and services to local customers, eBay stuck to its “global platform,” which again did not fit local customers’ tastes and preferences.

China GOAT and WOLF cartoon success story

You cant escape without noticing China hottest animation characters the "Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf" on any kids retail outlets today in China from kids clothing, tricycles, toys, backpacks, candies and even Goat versus Wolf amusement arcade machines. Not since "Uproar in Heaven" in the 60's had any animations in China been so successful. Many years back there was another potential IP "Blue Cat" but due to internal conflicts, bad management and wrong business strategy they withered away to be replaced by a Goat and a Wolf.

"Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf" 2nd movie this year was again a huge success rivaled along AVATAR for cinema screens and ended up with the fourth highest gross of RMB 126 million, the 1st movie gross above RMB 80 million. NOTE - the movie took only RMB 10 million to make and do not feature a single celebrity or famed voice actor like many Pixar animated movies.

It was first aired in 2005 featuring a simply story about the ongoing war between a wolf and a village of goats. Huitailang ( Grey Wolf ) is determined to defeat the goats and bring home a healthy goat meat meal for his wife Hongtailang ( Red Wolf ). Its a little like Tom and Jerry for China. The humor designed into the cartoon depicts many of China daily lifestyles too such as in 2005 when Super Girl contest was hot, Hongtailang ( Red Wolf ) would enter a singing contest too in the animations. Such pop culture had help to win the show to the adults community.

The characters in the story is very well designed such as Lazy Goat is always either sleeping or eating, he'll keep his eyes closed when walking just to save extra energy. Huitailang ( Grey Wolf ) had all the 10 merits of a good husband as he loves his wife more than himself, he cooks and never argues back. It is said that girlfriends asked their boyfriends to be like Huitailang as the perfect Mr. Right.

The success of "Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf" had brought huge hopes for the Chinese animation industry. Almost every animation studios now wants to create the next Goat and Wolf but the success of "Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf" is not something that can be easily mimic overnight.

THE BIG MISTAKE

"ASTRO BOY" animation was the first casualty of the Goat Dream, the movie did not make it pass RMB 10 million and suffered a huge lost which caused the studio to close its doors in Hong Kong. More casualties will come as time past many will learn that the Goat Dream needs proper planning and strategic move to get success.

When the 1st "Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf" movie hit the screen they already have more than 300 episodes broadcasting in more than 100 channels. When the 2nd movie hit the screen there were 500 episodes that had been broadcasted Chinawide. The promoter SMG had used a huge marketing budget to push the movie months prior to its release (*it is a PUSH MARKETING effect that helped in its box office) without this no animated movie could gain good screen time.

THE REVENUES DREAM

Its true that connected animation studios benefits from a helping hand from the government, any animation shown on domestic TV even at midnight are rewarded by the government with funds. And as part of the protection policy for domestic cartoons, the only cartoons that national TV station can broadcast between 5pm to 8pm (*golden period) are Chinese cartoons.

The key revenues from "Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf" are still licensing of merchandise.

TBC ...

MYSPACE China Music Focus


MySpace.cn refocuses almost 100% on music in China in their new strategy to save their social network from failing. Will this new strategy work for MySpace in China ?
It should help them to have a good start if this were their original entry strategy into China. But today MySpace China is a little too late already. In the last 12 months MySpace China had gone through many transformation which had killed their audience practically. MySpace even said "sorry" to their members after a major face change which they eventually change it back again as many were not able to understand how to use it.
Although the original audience on MySpace China was not big but there was an audience around. Today their original audience are leaving as they felt they do not belongs to this new music community. Music is huge in China but China do not have a very huge indie music industry like the US and the West. Its a different game plan. MySpace China needs a plan that can maintain their core audience while being able to scale bigger. Music is not the key answer here as on every Chinese portal music had been a key offering. A huge chunk of Baidu traffics comes from music search and downloads, is MySpace China providing this ? Can MySpace China compete with Google music ?